POOR weather conditions have led to the 2013 UK lamb crop being revised down to 15.8 million head, eight per cent lower than the estimated 2012 crop which it was expected to equal, according to the latest forecast from EBLEX/AHDB.
The downgrade, which comes despite a marginal increase in the breeding flock in December 2012, is mainly due to a notable reduction in the lamb rearing rate, which is expected to have fallen by ten percentage points from the relatively high levels of 2012.
EBLEX/AHDB senior analyst Paul Heyhoe said: “It has been clear for some time that the lambing rate would be lower, as the poor weather in 2012 and associated feed problems will have resulted in many ewes being in poor condition at tupping.
“Since then, there has been little opportunity for improvement and this will have impacted significantly on lambing rates, even before the bad weather conditions earlier this year.
“At this level, the 2013 lamb crop would be the smallest in many years, as the low rearing rate is compounded by the fact the breeding flock is still around one-third lower than it was in the 1990s.”
The impact of the low 2013 crop is likely to be felt during the second half of 2013 and the first half of 2014, with the lamb kill during this period projected to be seven per cent down year-on-year.
