I LAST wrote about Syria in this column in September of last year when I analysed the sectarian religious divides involved.

That article can still be found at desmondswaynemp.

com/Syria15thSeptember2012.htm.

Recently, many people have emailed to express their dismay at the prospect of the Government getting rather more drawn into Syrian conflict by arming the rebels.

The reality is that we are already involved: we are involved diplomatically in our attempts to broker a negotiated settlement; we are involved because we are providing large amounts of humanitarian relief; and we are providing nonlethal support to some rebel formations in the form of body armour and communications equipment.

I do understand however, the alarm at the prospect of our tiptoeing towards yet another Middle Eastern conflict.

I do not believe that there is currently any prospect of us arming the rebels. To achieve this would require a sea change in public and parliamentary opinion.

The Prime Minister has made it clear that Parliament will be consulted if there is any change of policy. The first rule of politics is to learn to count: the numbers are simple – there is no current majority in the Commons for shipping arms.

The tenor of my correspondence, however, is that we have no business to be involved, that it isn’t our fight and that we should keep well away. I disagree: I believe that we should be extremely cautious, but that we have interests to protect.

The conflict shows every possibility of developing into a full blown Muslim Sunni v Shi’a war and not just a rebellion against the tyranny of the Assad dynasty. This will destabilise the whole region. The Lebanon and Iran are already directly involved and sectarian killings have already begun in Egypt.

In this scenario I do not believe our national interest is served by being mere spectators: it is important that we do not, by our inaction or indifference, give up any influence on the future regimes in Syria and the region.

The dangers of supplying arms are that we just prolong the agony of war and that our weapons will get into the wrong hands, ultimately even being used against us by terrorists.

My own personal view is that there is a greater a risk from inaction than from seeking to strengthen the hands of moderate elements amongst the rebels.

All the choices are bad ones; the difficulty is in avoiding the very worst.