SCIENTISTS at Imperial College London believe Dorset has a minimal chance of becoming a coronavirus hotspot by the first week of December - days after the country is due to come out of lockdown.

The data has been produced by the Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College, in conjunction with its mathematics department.

It predicts the probability of local authorities recording at least 100 cases per 100,000 people over the coming weeks and becoming a 'hotspot' on its map.

The website predicts a nine per cent chance of Dorset Council area having this amount by the week ending Sunday, December 6 - four days after the second national lockdown is scheduled to end.

This is based on reported cases and weekly reported deaths, combined with mathematical modelling, which results in the probability of an area becoming a hotspot in the following weeks.

Currently, it predicts a six per cent chance of the local authority having 100 cases per 100,000 people by the week ending Wednesday, November 25, but this slightly increases to nine per cent in the week ending Sunday, November 29.

Dorset Echo: There is a low chance of Dorset Council area becoming a coronavirus hotspot according to the map. There is a low chance of Dorset Council area becoming a coronavirus hotspot according to the map.

The neighbouring Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole Council area meanwhile has a 46 per cent chance of becoming a coronavirus hotspot on Sunday, December 6. However, this is a decrease from the 79 per cent likelihood reported at the end of the week dating Sunday, November 29.

The map also notes positive coronavirus tests are "likely decreasing" in the Dorset Council area while they are "decreasing" in the BCP Council area.

The statistics suggest that the lockdown has worked in reducing the spread of coronavirus across the county. This reduction could also be due to how the Dorset Council area is predominately rural with its approximate 375,000 population spread across multiple towns, parishes and villages while BCP Council area is more developed and has a higher population.

Dorset remains at low risk of becoming a coronavirus hotspot while neighbouring Wiltshire has a 97 per cent chance, South Somerset has a 99 per cent chance while there is a 92 per cent chance in East Devon.

According to Public Health England’s interactive coronavirus map, Dorset Council area has reported 324 cases in the seven days leading up to November 19 – a fall of 22.5 per cent on the previous seven days.

Dorset Echo: Several areas of the South West are at risk of being coronavirus hotspots as Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed lockdown will end on December 2.Several areas of the South West are at risk of being coronavirus hotspots as Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed lockdown will end on December 2.

The rolling rate for Dorset Council as a whole, was 85.6 cases per 100,000 people - which is below the national average.

A number of neighbourhoods have also reported low cases of coronavirus while the Bridport South and West Bay area has not reported a coronavirus cluster during the course of the pandemic.

Imperial College states that its projections for hotspots assume no change in interventions and human behaviour has been made since a week before the last observed data. The data was last updated on Monday, November 23.

It adds: "We consider an area to have increasing new infections if our model estimates that the reproduction number R is greater than 1 with probability of at least 90 per cent."

It currently puts the probability of R - the number of people one person with the virus is likely to go on to infect - being greater than 1 at 92 per cent for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly.

Imperial College also lists a number of limitations to its predictions.

Dorset Echo: Dorset Council area has reported low coronavirus cases across its patch. Dorset Council area has reported low coronavirus cases across its patch.

It explains: "Predictions on this page assume no change in current interventions (lockdowns, school closures, and others) in the local area beyond those already taken about a week before the end of observations.

"An increase in cases in an area can be due to an increase in testing. The model currently does not account for this.

"Each area (local authority) is treated independently apart from the overall Rt estimate for its region. Thus the epidemic in a region is neither affected by nor affects any other region. It also does not include importations from other countries.

"The population within an area is considered to be homogeneous - i.e. all individuals are considered equally likely to be affected by the disease progression."