AND so to politics and the forthcoming general election (for those rolling their eyes, may I quickly wish you a Happy Easter before you turn the page?)

For those still here, this week saw the announcement of Matt Aldridge as the Salisbury Labour candidate for the next general election, most likely in October or November.

His candidacy completes the set of those standing for the main parties, alongside Victoria Charleston (Lib Dem), Barney Norris (Green), Julian Malins (Reform) and Arthur Pendragon (Independent), each hoping to unseat the longstanding incumbent Conservative MP, John Glen.

Some constituencies matter more in general elections than other.

While nearby seats in Southampton and Swindon are the sort that swing from one party to another, Hoovering up campaigning hours and resources, Salisbury is one of those seats that glides through the election largely untouched in terms of interest and exposure.

A glance back at the history books explains why: it has been a Conservative hold for a hundred years.

Further west, another Tory hold for a century is the recently renamed seat of South Devon.

Their current MP, Anthony Mangnall, won at the last election with a similar majority to John Glen (53 per cent of the vote, compared to 56 per cent).

But here, a slightly different model is being explored: the progressive parties have been taking part in a South Devon Primary, to see if it is possible to coalesce around a single candidate to challenge the current MP.

Campaigners there point out that although Mangnall won with 53 per cent of votes cast, if you take into account those who didn’t vote, that figure falls to 39.7 per cent of registered voters.

If a candidate could persuade those non-voters that the election isn’t a forgone conclusion, then suddenly the numbers look a lot more interesting.

All of which leads to the question, could something similar happen in Salisbury? If the council can be run by a coalition of progressive parties, could a similar agreement not be reached for the parliamentary election?

The statistics are curiously similar to South Devon: add in those who didn’t vote in 2019 and Glen actually gained the support of 40.6 per cent of the local electorate.

Added to this are two further factors: firstly, the addition of a Reform candidate is likely to peel off a chunk of natural Tory support.

Secondly, the share of the Tory vote here ebbs and flows with the national polls (Glen and his predecessors enjoyed over 50 per cent vote shares under Tory governments, but under 50 per cent under Labour).

With a reduced Conservative vote and an appeal to previous non-voters, a single progressive candidate could stand a chance of victory here. Otherwise, it’ll be John Glen massacring The Vly Be On The Turmut again.